Baltimore Banter

Monday, March 06, 2006

AL West: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels advanced to baseball's final four last season, on the backs of a very strong pitching staff and Vladimir Guerrero. This year, the Angels lost their second best hitter from last season and two of their starting pitchers. The pitching will still be very good, but their inability to score runs will likely hold this team to second place.

Lineup: Guerrero is the lone power bat on the club right now, but what a bat he is. He won the AL MVP award in 2004, and if the Angels somehow win 90 games this year, he had better win it again. The rest of the outfield is filled with aging players whose best seasons are behind them. Garrett Anderson has seen his home run total divide by 2, from 29 to 14, and his OPS decrease by over 100 points in the past two seasons, and Darin Erstad has really only had one above-average year, 2000, and he hasn't even slugged .400 since then. Chone Figgins, one of the best base-stealers in the game, will start at third but can play anywhere. If Figgins can improve on his .352 OBP, he will become possibly the best leadoff hitter in the game. Dallas McPherson has shown he can hit for power at the big league level, but his career OBP is under .300, which prevents him from getting in the lineup. Orlando Cabrera struggled mightily last year, his first in a lucrative contract, but his career numbers point to an increase in 2006. Adam Kennedy has been the Angels second baseman for five years, but his declining power numbers (.374 SLG) may open the door for Edgardo Alfonzo, who was acquired from the Giants for Steve Finley. Erstad will shift to center to replace Finley, leaving first base open for Casey Kotchman, who has played well in part time action. If he fails to produce, Rob Quinlan is an option off the bench. The catcher position is a weakness, as Benjie Molina departed, leaving his brother Jose as the starter, which is troublesome as the younger Molina's career OPS is just over .600. Juan Rivera is a solid DH, but if he's only going to get on base 32% of the time, he needs to develop more power. Rivera can play the outfield as well. Overall, this lineup lacks protection for Guerrero, players to get on base for Guerrero to drive in, and a second big bat to carry the offense when Guerrero has a slump.

Starting Rotation: Bartolo Colon turned in a great season in 2005 (though it's high crime that he won the Cy Young), being a workhorse for a division winning club. While he broke down in the postseason, he turned in an excellent World Baseball Classic performance, and should be a quality ace once more. The more encouraging thing for Los Angeles was the emergence of John Lackey as a solid second starter. Lackey posted his lowest career ERA, 3.44, in over 200 innings, and struck out nearly a batter per inning. He's still young, so the Angels have his talent for many years to come. The middle of the Angels rotation is still murky, however, after the departures of Paul Byrd and Jarrod Washburn. This means a bigger role for Ervin Santana, who saved the day in Game 5 of the ALDS, but was merely average during the regular season, and Kelvim Escobar, who will be pushed back into the starting role he inhabited during 2004. He is a good pitcher, who hasn't posted an ERA above 4.29 since the 2001 season. The final spot in the rotation is filled by Jeff Weaver, who for a fifth starter is very good. He's had two decent years with the Dodgers, but before that he bombed with the Yankees. The Angels hope the switch back to the American League doesn't hurt him too much. The Angels rotation is filled with talent from top to bottom, and should be among the best in the American League.

Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez is turning out to be one of the best closers in baseball, and will anchor the bullpen for many years to come. Behind him, the Angels have an excellent core of setup men. Scott Shields went over 91 innings posting an ERA at 2.75. He's still young, and his career high ERA is 3.33. The only concern is overwork. Brendan Donnelly had an off year last year, with his ERA over two points higher than his career best, but a 3.72 ERA in 65 innings is still respectable. He too is still young, but hasn't pitched as much as Shields. Behind him is Hector Carrasco, who had a career year in Washington last year, with a near 2 ERA in 88 innings. However, expect him to drop off, as he won't be in the cavernous RFK Stadium this year. Another excellent addition was J.C. Romero, an excellent left-hander, who aside from an off year in 2003, has been excellent the past four seasons. The rest of the bullpen isn't spectacular, but is filled with dependable guys Esteban Yan and Kevin Gregg, who should post ERA's somewhere in the four range. While it's not the best bullpen in baseball, it has everything you need: depth, a dominant closer, youth, and excellent setup men.

X-Factor: Garrett Anderson. With the departure of Benjie Molina, it is crucial that Anderson step up his game and protect Guerrero.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Bullpen/Power

Projection: 2nd place in the AL West

Win Range:
85-90


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