Baltimore Banter

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

AL East: Toronto Blue Jays



Out of all the teams in baseball, Toronto overhauled their roster the most, bringing in five players who will make an immediate impact. While they likely won't reach the postseason, there is reason for hope in Toronto that hasn't been there since Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar led the Blue Jays to back to back titles in the early 90s.

Lineup: The additions of Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina will help this lineup, but a lot depends on the pieces they already have in place performing up to their potential. Vernon Wells was a disappointment last year, posting a .783 OPS, his lowest since 2002. They still have some trouble in the corner outfield spots, where Reed Johnson, Alex Rios, and Frank Catalanotto are the options, Catalanotto being the best of a weak bunch. There is no clear leadoff hitter, the two middle infielders, Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, are still young and struggled last season. However, the middle of the lineup, with Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Shea Hillenbrand, and Molina will be as potent as Toronto has had in a long time. The bench is solid, with Gregg Zaun, Eric Hinske, John McDonald, and whoever loses the battle for the corner outfield spots,


Starting Pitching: Toronto has the potential to have a good starting rotation. Roy Halladay is one of the top 3 starters in the American League, and if he can stay healthy, he has a chance to start the All-Star game, and maybe win another Cy Young award. He was very good last year, in only 141 innings, with a 2.41 ERA and .96 WHIP. A.J. Burnett was given 55 million reasons to come North, and while he certainly has talent, he's not very consistent. He could turn out to be another Chan Ho Park, but if he pitches as well as he did in Florida last year, he'll be fine. Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers both had breakout seasons last year, and if they can have ERA's in the mid 3's again, Toronto will have, compared to the other teams in the AL East, a very good rotation. Ted Lilly was showing signs of becoming a decent pitcher before he bombed last season, with a 5.56 ERA. The Jays need him to bounce back. For however much potential the rotation has, Halladay is the only sure thing.

Bullpen: Toronto paid B.J. Ryan $47 million to close games for the next five years. Many will say they overpaid, and they probably did, but having a consistent closer is an extremely underrated thing, and many teams have had their hopes dashed because they were too cheap to find a real closer. Having watched Ryan in Baltimore, I think he has the stuff and the mental makeup to be a very good closer. Outside of that, the bullpen is nothing spectacular. They have some solid middle relief in Jason Frasor, Pete Walker, Justin Speier, Vinnie Chulk, and Scott Schoeneweis. The Blue Jays had the 6th best ERA in the AL last year, but that could go up or down this season. The pitching is hardly proven.

X Factor: A.J. Burnett. If he can have an ERA under 3.50, the Jays will have a lethal 1 2 punch, but if he proves to be a bust like other pitchers making the NL to AL transition, the middle market Blue Jays will have thrown a large portion of their payroll away for the next five years.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Great start of rotation and bullpen/Uncertainties at bottom of rotation

Projection: 3rd place in the AL East.

Win Range: 82-87

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