AL East: Baltimore Orioles

After a tumultuous 2005, the Orioles are just glad to be back on the field with a chance to start anew. Overshadowed by the Miguel Tejada trade demand over the offseason were several shrewd moves, including the addition of Leo Mazzone as pitching coach, adding a quality starter for basically nothing, ridding themselves of a clubhouse cancer, and signing an All-Star catcher. However, the Orioles look to be doomed to another fourth place finish.

Lineup: The infield is stellar. Ramon Hernandez should have improved offensive numbers leaving San Diego and coming to a more hitters friendly park. Javy Lopez is usually very good in contract years, although it’s still unclear how he’ll handle the transition to first base. He can DH as well. Brian Roberts had a breakout year last season, but is still feeling effects from an injury last year. Tejada will anchor the Orioles lineup, which means they need him to play as he did in 2004, and not in the second half of 2005. Melvin Mora is a consistent presence at third. The only sure thing in the outfield is Jay Gibbons, who will provide power but not get on base. The rest of the outfield is uncertain, with Corey Patterson battling Luis Matos for the centerfield job, and Jeff Conine fending off young talent, particularly Nick Markakis in left. Whomever wins the jobs probably won’t provide the necessary production. Kevin Millar was also signed, and will probably DH or play first, but if he doesn’t rebound from a tough season, the Orioles may be forced to call up some youngsters. The lineup has several stellar components, but it really falls off once you get to the 7th spot.

Starting Pitching: The Orioles have 5 decent starters, none of whom were terrible last season, but none of whom had an ERA lower than 3.83. (Bruce Chen) However, last season, Erik Bedard was looking like a number 1 starter until he got hurt. If he can pitch the way he did, going 6-2 with an ERA under 3, the Orioles will actually have a true ace. Rodrigo Lopez is likely to start on Opening Day, but with his 4.90 ERA, he is by no means their best starter. He has turned into a consistent performer though, stringing together several solid seasons. Daniel Cabrera is a good talent, but erratic. This is where Mazzone comes in. Hope for the Orioles rotation to be good rest with Cabrera realizing his potential, and getting his upper 90’s heater into the strike zone. Kris Benson carries a lot of baggage with him to Baltimore, but he’ll certainly do better than Sidney Ponson did last year.

Bullpen: Second year reliever Chris Ray is being counted on to close. He pitched well last year, but it is still unknown how he will handle the closer’s role. The rest of the Orioles bullpen is weak. LaTroy Hawkins and Todd Williams are decent, but not great, setup men. Aside from that, there are no other proven pitchers in the Orioles bullpen, as they lost two relievers in the offseason. Unless Eric DuBose, Tim Byrdak, or Franklyn Gracesqui suddenly blossom, it could get ugly for the O’s in the bullpen.

X Factor: Miguel Tejada. The emotional leader of the club demanded, then relented, to be traded. His second half stats fell off, but the Orioles need him to be a cleanup hitter and team leader. If the Orioles don’t get off to a good start, the whole thing could unravel if he becomes unhappy.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Infield hitters/Bullpen

Projection: 4th place in the AL East.

Win Range: 70-75