AL East: Boston Red Sox

This is not the same Boston team that won the World Series in 2004. There has been tremendous turnover since then, with most familiar faces gone. Even with all the new signings and trades, in the competitive American League, a fourth straight playoff appearance is not a certainty.

Lineup: Coco Crisp may not get on base as much as Johnny Damon, but he has just as much pop and should improve as he gets older. Mark Loretta is underrated as far as second basemen go, and while he might not have the power Red Sox fans became accustomed to during Mark Bellhorn's stay, he is a superior fielder. His acquisition allows for Tony Graffanino to move to the bench, where he will be an extremely valuable asset. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are still the best 3/4 combination until proven otherwise, no matter what Manny does off the field. If Trot Nixon can stay healthy, (he hasn't had 500 AB's since 2002) the Red Sox are set in the outfield. They don't have a proven veteran outfielder on the bench a la Gabe Kapler or Dave Roberts, only the youngster Adam Stern. Jason Varitek is arguably the best catcher in baseball right now, although he is getting up in years for a catcher. Doug Mirabelli was a great backup, but John Flaherty should do fine. At third, Boston is counting on Mike Lowell to return to form after an awful year in 2005. They expect Kevin Youkilis to step into a starting role at first base, but they signed J.T. Snow, a quality veteran backup, in case he struggles. However, in his limited time the past two years, Youkilis has played well. To replace the traded Edgar Renteria, the Red Sox signed Alex Gonzalez. Although his career OBP is .291, he has had some seasons with decent home run totals. Alex Cora and Graffanino make for very good reserve infielders.


Starting Pitching: There are very few sure things in Boston's rotation. They are counting on Josh Beckett to be their ace, but strange things have happened to pitchers going from the National to American league in the past. Boston needs Beckett to step up, because it's unlikely anyone else in the rotation will. Matt Clement might not be a front end starter, but they can count on him to be solid, if not spectacular. Tim Wakefield is still around as well, and age may not affect him so much, being a knuckleballer. While he's not going to win any Cy Young awards, he can anchor the back end of the rotation if he pitches as well as he did last year, when he had a 4.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in over 225 innings. Personally, I doubt Curt Schilling will ever return to what he was before he got hurt in the 2004 postseason, but it will be a huge boost if he can return to form, even at a reduced workload. Epstein is still looking to trade the aging David Wells, but if he cannot, Wells is still a decent pitcher, although it does raise some questions about age in the Sox rotation. Jonathan Papelbon is waiting in the wings.

Bullpen: Keith Foulke had many problems last season, but he says his arm is feeling better. Boston needs him to close games effectively, or else their entire bullpen is messed up. Mike Timlin is an excellent setup man, but has proven that he cannot close games, going 13 for 20 last season. The acquisition of David Riske was another good move, as he has strung together three very good seasons out of the Indians pen. They also signed Rudy Saenez, although his good season last year was aided by pitching in PETCO Park, one of the hardest parks to hit in. Finally, they signed Julian Tavarez, who was solid in the Cardinals bullpen the last two years. This offseason the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs proved another benefit to having a seemingly unlimited bank aside from signing stars; the ability to sign several high quality relievers without having to worry about possibly throwing $5 or 6 million down the drain if they don't pan out. Smaller market teams can't afford to spend so much on middle relievers. Youngster Lenny DiNardo pitched very well in limited time last year, and could earn innings as well. Bronson Arroyo may be pushed to the pen, but could start in a pinch. Overall, the bullpen looks good on paper, but it all comes down to Foulke returning to 2004 form.

X Factor: Josh Beckett. If he doesn't step up and become their ace, no one else will.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Power/Age in the rotation

Projection: 2nd place in the AL East.

Win Range: 88-93