AL Central: Detroit Tigers

Ever since their disasterous, 119 loss, 2003 season, the Tigers have been steadily climbing up the ladder. However, they started so far down that they only had 71 wins last season, and with the strength of the three teams above them, the most important game in Comerica Park's short history will remain the 2005 All-Star Game. Detroit didn't make any changes to their lineup this offseason, but they signed aging veterans Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones to bolster the rotation and bullpen respectively. Also, four time playoff manager Jim Leyland replaced Alan Trammell as manager.

Lineup: The Tigers have some big names in their lineup, but last season, their two best offensive players were Chris Shelton and Placido Polanco. Shelton, with a .510 SLG, will anchor the lineup, along with Magglio Ordonez and Ivan Rodriguez, although his production has dwindled. Polanco is the Tigers best hope for getting on base, recording a .383 OBP last season. The right side of the infield is set. Carlos Guillen is solid at shortstop, but Detroit wants more out of Brandon Inge at third. Magglio Ordonez was supposed to be the Tigers big bat last season, but he was hurt. Craig Monroe is adaquate at best in left, and center field is in flux. Curtis Granderson slugged .497 in limited action last season, but Nook Logan's speed may allow him to see some playing time. Dimitri Young will start at DH despite a lackluster 2005, leaving Carlos Pena out of the mix. A trade is possible. The bench is nothing special to say the least, with Vance Wilson, Pena, Omar Infante, and Logan, but it could be worse. The Tigers problem is that, last year at least, only two players had what can be counted as a good year, while everyone else played well enough to keep their jobs, but not well enough to lift the Tigers out of 4th. Unless players like Ordonez, Rodriguez, and Young step it up, the offense will have problems.

Starting Pitching: The Tigers have a good young pitching staff, but the ace is Kenny Rogers, who is over 40 years. Cameramen aside, Rogers actually had a very good season for Texas in 2005, and considering it is a lot easier to pitch well in Detroit than in Texas, he should be able to duplicate his success. The rest of the Tigers rotation is filled out with young guns Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson. All of them had ERA's in the 4's last season, but they are getting older now, and with experience, could blossom into a good starting rotation. The 5th spot is unsettled, as the club lost Jason Johnson to Cleveland. Justin Verlander is a possibility, but he hasn't proven he can be effective at the major league level.

Bullpen: The bullpen could be a spot of weakness for Detroit. With Troy Percival probably at the end, the club went out and signed a closer, almost 38 year old Todd Jones. Jones put up great numbers for Florida last year, but it is unlikely he will do it again; before his 2.10 ERA last year, he had not had an ERA under 4 since the 2000 season. The most reliable set up man is Jamie Walker, who in the last four seasons has had a WHIP under 1.30 and an ERA under 3.72. Chris Spurling has only pitched two seasons, but in both he pitched over 70 innings and has a career WHIP of 1.22. The rest of the pen is solid, but woefully inexperienced. Fernando Rodney came on well last season, posting a 2.86 ERA in 44 IP, but his two previous seasons were both horrid. The is true for Franklyn German, who gave the Tigers 59 solid innings last year, but would only put 2005 on a resume. Roman Colon, Wilfredo Ledezma, and Jason Grilli round out the rest of the bullpen, but none of them have put together even one solid full big league season. There is some potential in the bullpen, but Detroit is relying on too many incosistent pitchers.

X Factor: Magglio Ordonez. The Tigers paid him over $7 million last season, and even when healthy, he didn't produce. The Tigers need him to anchor the lineup with a power bat, without a 30 home run, SLG over .500, season from him, the lineup will lack a true power bat.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Position depth/Pitching depth

Projection: 4th place in the AL Central.

Win Range: 68-73

AL Central: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota, through good defense and pitching, won the AL Central every season from 2002 to 2004. However, the team struggled in 2005, finishing a disappointing 83-79, in third place. The Twins made some additions in the offseason, but they won't be enough to get them out of third in the division.

Lineup: The Twins have never won by the home run (last 30 home run Twin was Tom Brunansky), but judging by the aging veterans they brought in, they want to change that. Torii Hunter anchors the lineup, and surrounding him will likely be Joe Mauer, who is one of the best young players in baseball, and two 2005 disappointments, Justin Morneau and Lew Ford. Free agent acquisitions Rondell White and Tony Batista bring power to the lineup, but neither is a sure thing. White has an injury history, and reports say Batista was fat and disinterested last season, when he played in Japan. Nonetheless, in his last season in the majors, Batista hit 32 homers, which the Twins would love for him to do again in 2006. The best move Minnesota made this offseason came courtesy of the Marlins fire sale. Luis Castillo had a .391 OBP last year and has won three straight Gold Gloves at second base. Castillo will be an excellent table setter for Minnesota, even though his stolen base numbers have steadily decreased. Steady left fielder Shannon Stewart will likely bat second. The Twins biggest weakness is at shortstop, where projected starter Jason Barlett had an OPS under .650. Nick Punto may see playing time at that position. Micheal Cuddyer will shift to the bench to make room for Batista, but he could still see significant playing time if an outfielder goes down, because White would have to vacate the DH spot. The lineup was terrible last season because Hunter, Morneau, Stewart, and Ford had down years. If they can bounce back, it won't be a weakness, but nothing is for certain.

Starting Pitching: The Twins have the best starter in the American League in Johan Santana. No one else in the rotation comes close to matching him, but positions 2-4 are held by competent pitchers. Brad Radke has been a staple in Minnesota rotations for many years now, and at 33, may still have some good years left in him. Carlos Silva impressed many last season with a 3.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, which are good for a third starter. Kyle Lohse has never posted an ERA under 4.18 or a WHIP under 1.27, but he'll get the job done as a fourth starter. Scott Baker pitched well as a rookie last year, and appears to have won the fifth spot in the rotation. While he probably won't repeat his 3.35 ERA, he should be a quality fifth starter. Minnesota's rotation isn't what it once was, and if the offense doesn't improve, the starters aren't going to carry the team to the playoffs.

Bullpen: Joe Nathan has shown himself to be an excellent closer. The Twins definitely won the A.J. Pierzynski trade. Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain will provide a very stable to Nathan, both of them pitched over 75 innings last year with ERA's under 2.75. Matt Guerrier, in his first full season, pitched well, and looks to be a reliable middle relief man. The rest of the bullpen is more suspect, however. J.C. Romero was traded over the offseason, and Terry Mulholland was lost to the Diamondbacks via free agency. The Twins will fill out their bullpen through youngsters and minor league contract free agent signees such as Dennys Reyes, Darrell May, and Gabe White. Minnesota needs their core relievers to stay healthy and effective. The late innings are set, the only question is how the club will get there.

X Factor: Torii Hunter. Hurt last year, Hunter's numbers fell across the board. The Twins need him to be healthy, patrolling center field and anchoring their lineup.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Late innings bullpen/Pitching depth

Projection: 3rd place in the AL Central.

Win Range: 82-87

AL Central: Cleveland Indians

The Tribe were in position to earn their first playoff berth since the days of Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel last year, only to see their hopes dashed on the season's final weekend. They made some moves this offseason, but they lost several key components of their pitching staff, and that will prevent them from earning a playoff spot this season.

Lineup: Victor Martinez, the top catcher in baseball, and Travis Hafner anchor the Indians lineup, which is good, possibly the best in the division, but isn't going to carry the club to a playoff berth. Grady Sizemore broke out as a star centerfielder last year, and if he can cut down on his 132 strikeouts, will become a very good leadoff hitter for years to come. His calm demeanor in center field and good bat remind me of former Orioles center fielder Brady Anderson. Newly acquired Jason Micheals had a .399 OBP last season, and if he can repeat those numbers, the Indians won't regret losing Coco Crisp. Jhonny Peralta is another young Indian who should shine for years to come, his .520 SLG last year was tops among shortstops. The heart of the Indians lineup is very good, but right field, third base, and first base are problem areas. Casey Blake is not a bad hitter, but for a corner position, better than a .746 OPS is needed. Aaron Boone is penciled in as the starter at third, but if his OPS remains under .700, don't be surprised if prospect Andy Marte gets a chance at first. Ben Broussard saw his OBP drop 63 points last season, and the Indians signed Eduardo Perez to back him up. Broussard may find himself in a platoon if he doesn't improve his numbers. Ronnie Belliard has good power for a second baseman. The Indians don't have much speed however, ranking 11th in the AL in stolen bases.

Starting Pitching: The Indians staff was very good last year, led by Kevin Millwood and his 2.86 ERA. However, Millwood is gone, and to replace him is Paul Bryd, who was a mediocre third or fourth starter for the Angels last year. The new ace is Cliff Lee, who won 18 games last year, but had an ERA over 3.75. Veteran C.C. Sabathia is the second starter, and has proven he can be relied upon, but he's not going to have a Millwood-esque ERA. Jake Westbrook is fourth, but his 4.49 ERA was more than a point higher than 2004, when he was an All-Star. Jason Johnson was signed to replace the departed Scott Elarton, and while Johnson is a decent back-end pitcher, his career WHIP of 1.47 is a concern. The Indians still have a good rotation, with solid guys 1-5, but it will likely be worse than what Cleveland put on the field last season.

Bullpen: The Indians bullpen was among the best in baseball last season. Closer Bob Wickman was re-signed, but he may start to tire at age 37. Two key components of last year's bullpen, Bob Howry and Arthur Rhodes, will not return, and will replaced by Guillermo Mota and one the team's free agent signings, Danny Graves or Steve Karsay. The main setup men figure to be Fernando Cabrera, Scott Sauberbeck, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Miller, and Mota. Losing Rhodes and Howry shouldn't be a huge issue for a deep and talented bullpen. The biggest question is Wickman's age, but closers have been effective at an old age before.

X Factor: Cliff Lee. He hadn't been a reliable starter before last season, when he won 18 games. With Kevin Millwood gone, he'll need to repeat his performance, or the Indians rotation will suffer.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Bullpen/Speed

Projection: 2nd place in the AL Central.

Win Range: 83-88

AL Central: Chicago White Sox

Coming off their first World Series win in ages, the Chicago White Sox had a productive offseason, trading for several players who could be valuable additions to an already potent squad. However, Chicago will not repeat as world champions.

Lineup: The lineup starts with speedy left fielder Scott Podsednik. Podsednik is a throwback leadoff hitter, not the guy with the best OBP (career .345), but the guy with the most speed (averages 61 SB per 162 games). Following him is Tadahito Iguchi, a solid second baseman. The White Sox power comes from the next two spots, Paul Konerko and Jim Thome. This pair has the potential to be as productive as the Albert Belle/Frank Thomas pair of the late 90s White Sox teams, but Thome must stay healthy in order for that to happen. The White Sox are obviously relieved that Konerko resigned with the club, losing him would have meant losing not just the heart and soul of the lineup, but the heart and sole of the team as well. Jermaine Dye is solid in right field, as is A.J. Pierzynski behind the plate. For a shortstop, Juan Uribe provides excellent power. Joe Crede hits for decent power, but only got on base 30% of the time last season. Despite the White Sox reputation as a "smart baseball" team, the White Sox hit 200 home runs last season, and that number should go up with the addition of Thome. The biggest question is in center field, where the team lost leader Aaron Rowand to Philadelphia, and is replacing him with the inexperienced Brian Anderson. If Anderson falters, Rob Mackowiak could step in. The rest of the bench is adaquate, but not spectacular, with Pablo Ozuna and Chris Widger. However, as we saw in the playoffs, Ozzie Guillen doesn't use his bench too often.

Starting Pitching: The White Sox won the World Series last year thanks to excellent starting pitching. The ace of the staff is Mark Buehrle, who has been a true workhorse for five years, but is still only 27 years old. Freddy Garcia is solid, but is proving that his 3.05 ERA season in 2001 was a fluke, as he has hovered around the 4 mark ever since. Jon Garland and Jose Contreras both had career best seasons last year. If they can do it again this year, Chicago will have the best rotation in the American League. Garland recieved a $29 million contract this winter, but the White Sox can't afford a letdown. New addition Javier Vazquez hasn't been the same since he left Montreal, but he's in the prime of his career, and compared with the rest of the division, is excellent where he is in the rotation. Youngster Brandon McCarthy is waiting in the wings for a chance to start. He proved he could do it last season.

Bullpen: Bobby Jenks came on strong at the end of last season and carried the White Sox bullpen. While he needs to pitch more than 39 innings for one to properly gage him, having a three digit heater can't hurt. Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte both had breakout years in 2005, and with the depth in the Sox pen gone, Cotts and Politte need to keep up their excellent work. Dustin Hermanson was the White Sox closer for most of last season, and will start the season in a setup role. McCarthy will likely be a long reliever. Those 5 are solid, but aside from that, Chicago has no one else with significant big league experience. The White Sox traded away two proven relievers, Damaso Marte and Luis Viscaino as part of deals to get Vazquez and Mackowiak.

X Factor: Jim Thome. If he does not return to his pre-2005 form, when he was a lock for 35 home runs and SLG over .540, Konerko will have no protection, but if Thome plays up to his potential, the White Sox will have a powerful 1-2 punch rivaled only in the AL by New York and Boston.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Starting Pitching/Getting on base (team OBP .322 last year)

Projection: 1st place in the AL Central.

Win Range: 89-94

AL East: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have finished in last place every season they have fielded a team. Will they be like the '69 Mets? It is unlikely, as their Seavers, Koosemans, and Ryans are still developing. But Tampa has some good young talent, and it isn't out of the question to consider that they may soon rise to higher levels, although they are stifled somewhat by being in the AL East.

Lineup: The Devil Rays have good speed in Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford. Reserve outfielder Joey Gathright has good speed as well. The middle of the lineup is anchored by Johnny Gomes, who stepped up big last season, going .372/.534 in under 350 at bats. Aubrey Huff is their second best power hitter, but he struggled last year, hitting only 22 homers and falling to a .321 OBP. If he can repeat his 2003 season, when he hit 34 homers with a .367 SLG, Tampa's offense could be decent. The middle is solid, with Julio Lugo and the powerful Jorge Cantu. Toby Hall is weak at catcher, and new third baseman Sean Burroughs struggled mightily with San Diego last year. Nonetheless, the Devil Rays have the potential to be relatively potent offensively.

Starting Pitching: Scott Kazmir is the best starter, and is considered to have a lot of potential. Beyond that, questions arise. Mark Hendrickson, Casey Fossum, Seth McLung, and Doug Waechter are projected as the 2-5 starters, but none of them had an ERA under 4.92 last season. It is an awfully young rotation, and after Kazmir, it is awfully weak.

Bullpen: Closer Danys Baez was traded in the offseason, which allows Chad Orvella to step into the closer's role. Jesus Colome and Chad Harville are the only other relievers who put up reasonably good numbers last season, but neither of them would have a major role on a contending team. Edwin Jackson, acquired in the Baez trade, is a highly touted prospect, but has yet to show consistency at the major league level. Japanese import Shinji Mori and veteran Dan Miceli were brought in, but neither is expected to have a large impact.

X Factor: Scott Kazmir. The best pitcher on the club last year, the Devil Rays need him to improve, not regress, in his second full major league season.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Speed/Starting pitching

Projection: 5th place in the AL East.

Win Range: 66-71

AL East: Baltimore Orioles

After a tumultuous 2005, the Orioles are just glad to be back on the field with a chance to start anew. Overshadowed by the Miguel Tejada trade demand over the offseason were several shrewd moves, including the addition of Leo Mazzone as pitching coach, adding a quality starter for basically nothing, ridding themselves of a clubhouse cancer, and signing an All-Star catcher. However, the Orioles look to be doomed to another fourth place finish.

Lineup: The infield is stellar. Ramon Hernandez should have improved offensive numbers leaving San Diego and coming to a more hitters friendly park. Javy Lopez is usually very good in contract years, although it’s still unclear how he’ll handle the transition to first base. He can DH as well. Brian Roberts had a breakout year last season, but is still feeling effects from an injury last year. Tejada will anchor the Orioles lineup, which means they need him to play as he did in 2004, and not in the second half of 2005. Melvin Mora is a consistent presence at third. The only sure thing in the outfield is Jay Gibbons, who will provide power but not get on base. The rest of the outfield is uncertain, with Corey Patterson battling Luis Matos for the centerfield job, and Jeff Conine fending off young talent, particularly Nick Markakis in left. Whomever wins the jobs probably won’t provide the necessary production. Kevin Millar was also signed, and will probably DH or play first, but if he doesn’t rebound from a tough season, the Orioles may be forced to call up some youngsters. The lineup has several stellar components, but it really falls off once you get to the 7th spot.

Starting Pitching: The Orioles have 5 decent starters, none of whom were terrible last season, but none of whom had an ERA lower than 3.83. (Bruce Chen) However, last season, Erik Bedard was looking like a number 1 starter until he got hurt. If he can pitch the way he did, going 6-2 with an ERA under 3, the Orioles will actually have a true ace. Rodrigo Lopez is likely to start on Opening Day, but with his 4.90 ERA, he is by no means their best starter. He has turned into a consistent performer though, stringing together several solid seasons. Daniel Cabrera is a good talent, but erratic. This is where Mazzone comes in. Hope for the Orioles rotation to be good rest with Cabrera realizing his potential, and getting his upper 90’s heater into the strike zone. Kris Benson carries a lot of baggage with him to Baltimore, but he’ll certainly do better than Sidney Ponson did last year.

Bullpen: Second year reliever Chris Ray is being counted on to close. He pitched well last year, but it is still unknown how he will handle the closer’s role. The rest of the Orioles bullpen is weak. LaTroy Hawkins and Todd Williams are decent, but not great, setup men. Aside from that, there are no other proven pitchers in the Orioles bullpen, as they lost two relievers in the offseason. Unless Eric DuBose, Tim Byrdak, or Franklyn Gracesqui suddenly blossom, it could get ugly for the O’s in the bullpen.

X Factor: Miguel Tejada. The emotional leader of the club demanded, then relented, to be traded. His second half stats fell off, but the Orioles need him to be a cleanup hitter and team leader. If the Orioles don’t get off to a good start, the whole thing could unravel if he becomes unhappy.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Infield hitters/Bullpen

Projection: 4th place in the AL East.

Win Range: 70-75

AL East: Toronto Blue Jays

Out of all the teams in baseball, Toronto overhauled their roster the most, bringing in five players who will make an immediate impact. While they likely won't reach the postseason, there is reason for hope in Toronto that hasn't been there since Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar led the Blue Jays to back to back titles in the early 90s.

Lineup: The additions of Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina will help this lineup, but a lot depends on the pieces they already have in place performing up to their potential. Vernon Wells was a disappointment last year, posting a .783 OPS, his lowest since 2002. They still have some trouble in the corner outfield spots, where Reed Johnson, Alex Rios, and Frank Catalanotto are the options, Catalanotto being the best of a weak bunch. There is no clear leadoff hitter, the two middle infielders, Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, are still young and struggled last season. However, the middle of the lineup, with Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Shea Hillenbrand, and Molina will be as potent as Toronto has had in a long time. The bench is solid, with Gregg Zaun, Eric Hinske, John McDonald, and whoever loses the battle for the corner outfield spots,


Starting Pitching: Toronto has the potential to have a good starting rotation. Roy Halladay is one of the top 3 starters in the American League, and if he can stay healthy, he has a chance to start the All-Star game, and maybe win another Cy Young award. He was very good last year, in only 141 innings, with a 2.41 ERA and .96 WHIP. A.J. Burnett was given 55 million reasons to come North, and while he certainly has talent, he's not very consistent. He could turn out to be another Chan Ho Park, but if he pitches as well as he did in Florida last year, he'll be fine. Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers both had breakout seasons last year, and if they can have ERA's in the mid 3's again, Toronto will have, compared to the other teams in the AL East, a very good rotation. Ted Lilly was showing signs of becoming a decent pitcher before he bombed last season, with a 5.56 ERA. The Jays need him to bounce back. For however much potential the rotation has, Halladay is the only sure thing.

Bullpen: Toronto paid B.J. Ryan $47 million to close games for the next five years. Many will say they overpaid, and they probably did, but having a consistent closer is an extremely underrated thing, and many teams have had their hopes dashed because they were too cheap to find a real closer. Having watched Ryan in Baltimore, I think he has the stuff and the mental makeup to be a very good closer. Outside of that, the bullpen is nothing spectacular. They have some solid middle relief in Jason Frasor, Pete Walker, Justin Speier, Vinnie Chulk, and Scott Schoeneweis. The Blue Jays had the 6th best ERA in the AL last year, but that could go up or down this season. The pitching is hardly proven.

X Factor: A.J. Burnett. If he can have an ERA under 3.50, the Jays will have a lethal 1 2 punch, but if he proves to be a bust like other pitchers making the NL to AL transition, the middle market Blue Jays will have thrown a large portion of their payroll away for the next five years.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Great start of rotation and bullpen/Uncertainties at bottom of rotation

Projection: 3rd place in the AL East.

Win Range: 82-87

AL East: Boston Red Sox

This is not the same Boston team that won the World Series in 2004. There has been tremendous turnover since then, with most familiar faces gone. Even with all the new signings and trades, in the competitive American League, a fourth straight playoff appearance is not a certainty.

Lineup: Coco Crisp may not get on base as much as Johnny Damon, but he has just as much pop and should improve as he gets older. Mark Loretta is underrated as far as second basemen go, and while he might not have the power Red Sox fans became accustomed to during Mark Bellhorn's stay, he is a superior fielder. His acquisition allows for Tony Graffanino to move to the bench, where he will be an extremely valuable asset. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are still the best 3/4 combination until proven otherwise, no matter what Manny does off the field. If Trot Nixon can stay healthy, (he hasn't had 500 AB's since 2002) the Red Sox are set in the outfield. They don't have a proven veteran outfielder on the bench a la Gabe Kapler or Dave Roberts, only the youngster Adam Stern. Jason Varitek is arguably the best catcher in baseball right now, although he is getting up in years for a catcher. Doug Mirabelli was a great backup, but John Flaherty should do fine. At third, Boston is counting on Mike Lowell to return to form after an awful year in 2005. They expect Kevin Youkilis to step into a starting role at first base, but they signed J.T. Snow, a quality veteran backup, in case he struggles. However, in his limited time the past two years, Youkilis has played well. To replace the traded Edgar Renteria, the Red Sox signed Alex Gonzalez. Although his career OBP is .291, he has had some seasons with decent home run totals. Alex Cora and Graffanino make for very good reserve infielders.


Starting Pitching: There are very few sure things in Boston's rotation. They are counting on Josh Beckett to be their ace, but strange things have happened to pitchers going from the National to American league in the past. Boston needs Beckett to step up, because it's unlikely anyone else in the rotation will. Matt Clement might not be a front end starter, but they can count on him to be solid, if not spectacular. Tim Wakefield is still around as well, and age may not affect him so much, being a knuckleballer. While he's not going to win any Cy Young awards, he can anchor the back end of the rotation if he pitches as well as he did last year, when he had a 4.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in over 225 innings. Personally, I doubt Curt Schilling will ever return to what he was before he got hurt in the 2004 postseason, but it will be a huge boost if he can return to form, even at a reduced workload. Epstein is still looking to trade the aging David Wells, but if he cannot, Wells is still a decent pitcher, although it does raise some questions about age in the Sox rotation. Jonathan Papelbon is waiting in the wings.

Bullpen: Keith Foulke had many problems last season, but he says his arm is feeling better. Boston needs him to close games effectively, or else their entire bullpen is messed up. Mike Timlin is an excellent setup man, but has proven that he cannot close games, going 13 for 20 last season. The acquisition of David Riske was another good move, as he has strung together three very good seasons out of the Indians pen. They also signed Rudy Saenez, although his good season last year was aided by pitching in PETCO Park, one of the hardest parks to hit in. Finally, they signed Julian Tavarez, who was solid in the Cardinals bullpen the last two years. This offseason the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs proved another benefit to having a seemingly unlimited bank aside from signing stars; the ability to sign several high quality relievers without having to worry about possibly throwing $5 or 6 million down the drain if they don't pan out. Smaller market teams can't afford to spend so much on middle relievers. Youngster Lenny DiNardo pitched very well in limited time last year, and could earn innings as well. Bronson Arroyo may be pushed to the pen, but could start in a pinch. Overall, the bullpen looks good on paper, but it all comes down to Foulke returning to 2004 form.

X Factor: Josh Beckett. If he doesn't step up and become their ace, no one else will.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Power/Age in the rotation

Projection: 2nd place in the AL East.

Win Range: 88-93

AL East: New York Yankees

This Yankee team may not win the World Series. They have serious questions, particularly with their pitching. However, there is no reason to think that this team will not steamroll its way to 95 wins.

Lineup: The Yankees lineup is as potent as any in baseball. Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter at the top make for a killer combination, particularly with their .366 and .389 respective OBP. Alex Rodriguez remains a premier power threat and rivals Albert Pujols as the best statistical hitter in baseball, assuming Barry's knee is still bothering him. Gary Sheffield will be 37 years old next year, but he hasn't shown signs of slowing up yet, and while it's unlikely he'll equal his 2003 totals of 43 homers, a .419 OBP, and a .604 SLG, he is still one of the best hitters in baseball, inspiring the fear of god in every pitcher he faces. If Jason Giambi can have the same season he did last year, the Yankees should be fine at first base. The biggest question is at catcher, where Jorge Posada has seen his OPS drop by over 100 points since 2003. He's still an above average catcher, but at age 34, the Yankees definitly need to accept that he's not the long-term answer. Robinson Cano is a solid enough second baseman for most teams, and on a team with this much firepower, he'll settle into the 8 or 9 hole just fine. The biggest question is whether Bernie Williams has anything left. Last season, he was atrocious, (.321/.367). This brings up a bigger question for the Yankees, their lack of depth. Their bench basically consists of Kelly Stinnett behind the plate, Miguel Cairo in the infield, and Bubba Crosby in the outfield. Should Williams completely tail off, which at age 37 is entirely plausible, the Yankees will likely have to trade for a DH.

Starting Pitching: For as much flak as Yankee pitching has been exposed to, the starting rotation is still decent, arguably as good as it was during several of the Yankees recent championship seasons, particularly 1999. Randy Johnson isn't what he once was, but he says he's ready to go this year, and he made strides in the second half. Mike Mussina tailed off last year, but he's still a solid number 2. Here's where it gets murky. Carl Pavano struggled with injuries last year, and it's unclear whether he'll be able to bounce back to his 2004 form and earn his $9 million dollar salary. New York was saved by Chien-Ming Wang, Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon last season. If those guys don't peform as well, or at least comparably, to as they did last year, the back end of the Yankees rotation could come apart. They still have Jaret Wright as well, but should the Yankees get to Game 7 of the World Series, he's unlikely to get the ball again, as he did 8 years ago against Florida.

Bullpen: Mariano Rivera is still the guy I want on the mound with a one run lead in the ninth inning. His presence gives the Yankees a confidence few other teams have. The Yankees used their money this offseason to acquire good setup men, especially Kyle Farnsworth, who could be a closer for many teams. The Octavio Dotel signing was an underrated move, he's not too old, and has had some seasons in which he was unbeatable, especially 2001. (1.85 ERA, .87 WHIP, in 97 Innings) Mike Myers and Ron Villone are not the greatest lefty specialists in the world, but they should get the job done. Aaron Small looks ready to take the Ramiro Mendoza role as long reliever. The bullpen has taken a lot of heat the past few postseasons, but it could turn out to be a pillar of their team.

X Factor: Carl Pavano. If he's healthy, the rotation looks a lot better for both the gruel of a 162 game season, and a short series.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Power/Lack of a bench

Projection: 1st place in the AL East.

Win Range: 92-97

Hope Springs Eternal: AL

Every year, people like to talk about during Spring Training, hope springs eternal. Usually, that's just some crack pot like Thomas Boswell trying to keep a literally dying readership. But I've come to the conclusion that it's true. Let's look at the American League. Every team has something to be excited about for the upcoming season. Yes, even Tampa Bay.

In the AL East, New York and Boston have legitimate playoff shots. Toronto signed a lot of good talent, even if they overpayed for most of it. You've got to believe they'll be in the hunt, even if they won't win anything. They won 80 games last year, with the talent they got, the high 80's is possible. The Orioles can at least look forward to a calmer season, and with the starting pitching improved, they have a chance to get to .500. Tampa Bay, well, they are a young team with a lot of talent. Also, they have new people running the show, which is good in that at least it's not the old people.

In the AL Central, Chicago just won the World Series, so they're probably real down on themselves right now, but all the other teams have reasons to be optimistic. Cleveland was in the race up to the last day last year, they've got to think they can do it again. Minnesota finally got some offense, and Detroit has a competent manager and improved, if old, pitching. And for Kansas City, they can win 10 more games than they did last year, which means they won't be a laughinstock.

In the AL West, Oakland signed some key players for their rotation and power hitting, so coming off an 88 win season in which injuries plauged them, they should be able to win at least 92 games this year. Anaheim lost some pieces, but signed Jeff Weaver, which helps the rotation. They may not be as good as they were last year pitching wise, but the offense has some good young talent. Texas revamped their pitching staff. Last but not least, the Mariners got a good catcher in there for the first time since Dan Wilson, and they upgraded their rotation. They may not win the division, but if Adrian Beltre bounces back, they could win 80 games.

The Sad Truth

The Maryland Terrapins Men's Basketball team will not make the NCAA Tournament. Sorry, it's just not going to happen. Not with this team. It's a pity, because this year was ripe for the taking, at least ripe for getting a good seed. Duke is the only team clearly better than the Terps -- with Chris McCray. However, without McCray, this team simply is not going to go anywhere.

Without McCray, Mike Jones, a defensive liability compared to McCray's excellence in that area, is playing starter's minutes, and so far, as not proven himself capable of being more than a nice three point shooter. That's the extent of his worth. Jones is now Maryland's only quality three point shooter, with McCray out. When playing teams like Duke or NC State, Maryland routinely loses up to 20 points in the three point differential. Those are points that need to be made up somewhere, and right now, the Terps really have no way of doing that.

Second, the entire guard rotation has been screwed up, so that Parrish Brown is now playing 20 minutes a game, as he did at Clemson. Brown, who looks completely overmatched out there, is not going to help Maryland win any games. Unless Sterling Ledbetter is in serious foul trouble, he needs to be the primary guard option off the bench, because he actually has a clue how to run the offense.

Finally, without McCray's solid 15 points a game, the Terps are having trouble scoring, as demonstrated in the 62-58 loss to NC State, in which they played great, they just couldn't score when they needed to. The answer so far has been Nik Caner-Medley, which would be fine, except it means a lot of fadeaway jumpers from the top of the key, which are not going to start falling consistently any time soon.

The Terps have winnable games coming up. Home against Georgia Tech should be won. But ganes at North Carolina and Florida State could both be losses, putting the Terps at 6-8, and marking the third straight year they fail to finish with a winning record in conference play. Miami at home is winnable, as is Virginia on the road, but seeing how the Cavs gave the Terps such a struggle in College Park last time around, it's tough to envision the Terps winning that game. Will 7-9 get Maryland into the tournament in a weaker ACC? No, unless they have a 2004-esque run in the ACC Tournament, to the Semifinals at the very least. Sadly, this team, at this moment, probably is not as good as that team, which started 4 sophmores.

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Let's go Orioles, Terps, Ravens, Caps, and a few other teams that suck as well. Pity me.