Baltimore Banter

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

NL East: New York Mets

The Mets have struggled since their 2000 run to the World Series, but this offseason, they finally eliminated all remnants of that team when they allowed Mike Piazza to walk via free agency. The Mets made several huge moves over the winter to improve their lineup and their bullpen. Critics may say that the Mets are becoming the Yankees in terms of simply buying everybody, but considering the last five seasons, Mets fans will be happy to have a contending team on the field, no matter how it got there.

Lineup: Paul Lo Duca will replace Piazza at catcher, and is a veteran leader who knows how to work with a pitching staff. While Lo Duca doesn't have Piazza's power, he is a career .285 hitter; he's certainly not a liability with the bat, and neither is his backup, Ramon Castro. The biggest offensive move, however, occured when the Mets traded for Carlos Delgado. Delgado is one of the premier first basemen in the game, a virtual lock for 30 home runs, and a career .393/.559 hitter. The ageless Julio Franco will back up Delgado at first. The middle infield is the Mets biggest weakness. Kaz Matsui remains the starting second baseman, despite a career OPS of .700. The Mets do not have a true backup in place, but Chris Woodward could fill in if neccessary. The leadoff hitter figures to be shortstop Jose Reyes, who has great physical talent and speed, but needs to improve upon his .300 OBP. The biggest star last year for New York was third baseman David Wright, who broke out last season, going .388/.523. Wright figures to be one of the top third basemen in baseball for years to come. Cliff Floyd starts in left, and while he's getting up in years, remains a dangerous hitter. The rightfield spot is filled by Xavier Nady, who failed to live up to expectations in San Diego, but may blossom in a new environment. He may split time with Victor Diaz. Carlos Beltran, signed to a huge contract prior to the 2005 season, was a disappointment, but he has too much talent and his too good to struggle so mightily again. The heart of the Mets lineup looks to be unbelieavable, especially if Beltran regains his 2004 form. While Reyes, Matsui, Nady, and Lo Duca are unspectacular, but solid, the Beltran-Delgado-Wright-Floyd portion should strike the fear of god into most pitchers.

Starting Rotation: The Mets rotation is either extremly old and fragile, or especially young and unproven. Pedro Martinez was as good as he's been since 2000 last year, but he's had toe problems, and Martinez has already lost a lot off his fastball, so his days of dominance are certainly going away. Tom Glavine has bounced back from a rough start with New York, but turns 40 years old in a few days. It shouldn't matter too much for Glavine, however, due to his pitching style. The rest of the rotation lacks future hall of famers or current all-stars. Steve Trachsel is an underappreciated veteran, and looks to bounce back from an injury filled 2005. The Mets gave up prized young pitcher Scott Kazmir to get Victor Zambrano, but Zambrano's first year in New York was a disappointment, as he went 7-12 with a 4.17 ERA. He may well be a solid back-end starter, but he likely won't be as good as Kazmir. The final spot in the rotation belongs to Aaron Heilman, who pitched 108 innings last year and had a 3.17 ERA, although he only had 7 starts. He hasn't had much success starting in the past. Cuban defector Alay Soler could see action as well. As shown, the Mets have a talented starting pitching corps, but questions abound with health, age, or inexperience.

Bullpen: The bullpen has been a weakness in recent years for New York, but by replacing Braden Looper with Billy Wagner, at least the closer will be rock solid. Wagner has had several unbelieveable years in Philadelphia and Houston, and while he isn't young anymore, he still has great velocity. The rest of the Mets bullpen is still a cause for concern, with Duaner Sanchez and Chad Bradford being the only reliable arms outside of Wagner. A key component could be Jorge Julio, who had strung together three decent seasons before falling apart in 2005. The rest of the Mets bullpen is very young, and the success of the unit may depend on the development of Heath Bell, Bartolome Fortunato, and Steve Schmoll. The bullpen is very strong at the back, but lacks the depth or dominant setup men to not be a worry.

X Factor: Pedro Martinez. The offseason has been filled with questions about his toe, and historically he has been an injury risk, but if he's healthy, he's still one of the top starters in baseball, as he proved last season.

Biggest Strength/Weakness: Power/Bullpen

Prediction: 2nd place in the NL East

Win Range: 85-90

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