Fantasy

D:
Alexander
Brady
Cadillac
TO
Antonio Gates
Julius Jones
Mushin
Eli
BAL D
Stover
V. Davis
Housmadzahe

A:
Larry J
Lamont
Larry Fitz
Marvin H.
Matt Hasselbeck
Jason Witten
K Jones
JAC Def
Terry Glenn
Bledsoe
F. Gore
Tynes

N:
LT
Portis
Steve Smith
Santana
Shockey
Hines
CAR Defense
Culpepper
B. Westbrook
Vinatieri
Bulger
Rhodes

Jo:
Edge
Rudi
Chad Johnson
Chambers
Warner
Cooley
Reg Wayne
TB Def
Chester
Delhomme
S. Graham
Mason

K:
Peyton
Tiki
Torry Holt
McGahhee
Roy Williams
Heap
CHI Def
Plexiglass
Warrick Dunn
Neil Rackers
Vick
Crumpler

Ji:
Ronnie Brown
S. Jackson
Randy Moss
Boldin
Carson P
Tony G
SEA Def
Willie Parker
D Jack
Donovan
Akers
Indy Def

Changing Status

Throughout most of the season, the conventional wisdom was that there were two teams in the National League that shined brightest above everyone else, the Mets and the Cardinals. Well, it was half right. The Mets have continued their domination of their division, but the Cardinals have been exposed as a team with aging players and a lack of depth. In to replace them as the National League's clear number 2 team is the Los Angeles Dodgers. After GM Ned Colletti pulled off some great trades at the July 31 non-waiver deadline, the Dodgers have leapfrogged ahead of their NL West competition to take solid lead in that division.

The Dodgers have the deepest squad in the National League, which has become particularly evident as Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent have returned from the disabled list. They really have no weaknesses in their bench, with is something that few other teams can say. Even the Mets have given at bats to guys like Chris Woodward, and the rest of the National League is even worse. The Cardinals, one of the only other teams consistently over .500, have terrible offense from catchers Yadier Molina and Gary Bennett and no power out of reserve outfielder So Taguchi. David Eckstein may be a player you love to root for because of his small stature, but his offensive production compared to that of Jose Reyes and Rafael Furcal. The Mets and Dodgers have solid lineups all the way through, while the Cardinals are reliant on Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen to pick up the offensive slack.

Starting rotations provide an even starker image of how the Dodgers outclass St. Louis. The Cardinals give starts to Jeff Weaver (who is actually pitching worse in St. Louis then he did for the Angels, if that's possible) and Jason Marquis is nearly as bad, with an ERA in the upper 5's. To make matters worse, Jeff Suppan, who has fallen off his consistent track that he'd established in the previous three seasons. Now, Mark Mulder is on the disabled list. In most years, that would be a relief for Cardinal/A's fans. But not this year. Before he went on the DL, Mulder had an ERA over 6 and a WHIP not much better. That leaves the Cardinals going into the playoffs with only ace Chris Carpenter as a playoff-quality starter. Anthony Reyes started off the season well but has faltered lately.

In contrast, the Dodgers have proven veterans in Derek Lowe and Brad Penny who are having good seasons, a completely rejuvenated Greg Maddux, a rookie in Chad Billingsley who has put together 4 straight outings of giving up fewer than two runs, and Mark Hendrickson, who is good for a 5th starter and would be the 2nd best guy on the Cardinals staff, which says something about St. Louis' troubles.

The Dodgers also have a good bullpen, and while Jason Isringhausen has righted himself after a sluggish start, the Cardinals pen is nothing to brag about.

Expect a Mets/Dodgers NLCS, and don't be surprised if the Dodgers give the Mets a run for their money in that series.

Two Months To Go: AL East

The homestretch begins now. Each team in contention has had a chance to improve, and now that we see which teams did so, and which teams stood pat, it is time to forcast how the rest of the season will play out.

The Yankees recently leapfrogged into first place, overtaking Boston. I see no reason why the Yankees will relinquish that lead. Both teams have questionable starting staffs, with guys like Cory Lidle and Jason Johnson set to get the ball every fifth day. However, the moves the Yankees made will propel them over Boston. Craig Wilson is a vast improvement over Andy Philips at first base, and even though Philips will recieve some at bats, any way to get a guy with a .679 OPS not playing first base on a regular basis is a positive development. While Cory Lidle bombed the last time he played in the American League, at least he is not Sidney Ponson. The Yankees rotation is at the very least stable, which cannot be said for that of the Red Sox.

The Red Sox were unable to pull off a deal at the deadline, reportedly because they were reluctant to trade valued prospects. While that may be well and good, Boston is in deep trouble with their starting staff. Tim Wakefield's return can't be soon enough for a team that features Johnson and David Wells in the rotation. The bullpen could also have used help, as it is nowhere as deep as that of the Yankees. Admittedly the Red Sox currently have many pitchers on the DL, but Keith Foulke and Wakefield are really the only ones who figure to help the team, and Foulke far from what he was in 2004. The Red Sox are in even worse shape now that Jason Varitek is out for over a month. Although he was having a down season, he is far better then Doug Mirabelli, who is best suited as a catcher for Wakefield, and not an everyday player.

Toronto also failed to make a move at the deadline. They were expected to be major players for Julio Lugo, but watched as he went to the Dodgers, leaving them with a middle infield of John McDonald and Aaron Hill. Furthermore, they lost Shea Hillenbrand without recieving any replacement in the lineup. However, their offense is the least of their problems. The back end of the rotation is a mess, although getting Gustavo Chacin back should alleviate some of that. Roy Halladay may be the best starter in the league not pitching for Minnesota, but the rest of the rotation is painfully average, including $11 million A.J. Burnett. The Blue Jays were able to add Jeremy Accardo in getting rid of Hillenbrand, helping to solidify the bullpen, but the Yankees still have the top pen in this race.

The Yankees made vast improvements to their pitching staff and lineup. Bobby Abreu and Craig Wilson will help save Yankee fans from seeing Bobby Crosby and Andy Philips regularly in the lineup, making an already imposing offense even better.

Boston is facing serious trouble with injuries, and Toronto, which was looking in from the start, failed to make the deal that would put them in serious contention.

So here's how I think it will play out in the end:

1. New York (99-63)
2. Boston (94-68)
3. Toronto (85-77)

Good Trade For Nats

The Nationals recently completed an eight player deal with the Cincinnati Reds. The Nats may face some heat for the deal, as they gave up young pitching for hitters, but I strongly defend this trade. First of all, the regulars the Nationals recieved, Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez, are both under 26 years old. They are both players with significant upside who are locked up for several years.

Now, I recognize that a solid pitching staff is neccessary to be successful, but let's not get carried away here. Gary Majewski is a very good setup man, but that's all he is, a good reliever. Players like that are replaceable. Relievers come and go, and even the best only pitch about 70 innings a season.

I also recognize that trading young pitching, mainly Bill Bray, is always a risk. Young pitchers are the most valued asset in baseball. However, there is no guarantee that Bray will develop into an above average big league pitcher. Lopez is a former All-Star, and Kearns has already put together productive seasons at the major league level.

Getting two regulars, players who can help in 162 games, is huge. Sure, losing relievers hurts, but it hurts short term, and the Nationals aren't in the pennant race anyway. By the time they are, by the time Kearns and Lopez reach their prime, the bullpen will be totally restocked. For a team that still has a long way to go, getting two solid everyday players is a big step toward respectability.

So What?

In recent weeks, much fuss has been made about the inequities of fan voting for the All-Star game starters. Critics point to the American League, where 6 of the 8 starting slots belong to players from either the Red Sox or the Yankees. They complain of an East Coast Bias and that New York fans, for both the Yankees and Mets, are stuffing the ballot boxes. Critics also act as if this is some sort of problem. It's not.

Sure, guys like Joe Mauer and Vernon Wells deserve starting spots over Jason Varitek and Vladimir Guerrero (from another big market, Los Angeles). But it's not as if this is anything new, and it's not always with the big markets. Flash back to the final years of Cal Ripken Jr.'s career, when he was a .250/.300/.400 player, yet still started in the All-Star game. Ripken played in a mid-market, Baltimore, not in New York or Boston. Ripken made it on his reputation. Reputation is the biggest culprit here, not ballot-stuffing. In other sports, reputation plays a big role in selecting all-stars. (How else would Jonathan Odgen have made the Pro Bowl last year?) Fans simply vote for players they've heard of, not the players who are best statistically. This is the real reason for the inequities in the voting.

It just so happens that since the Yankees and Red Sox, because of their consistent presence in the postseason and willingness to pay top dollar for stars, have these guys. Judging by all the boos A-Rod has recieved this year, most of his votes probably come from fans across the country who know how good a player he's been historically, as opposed to Yankee fans who love their third baseman so much.

As an Orioles fan, am I upset that Miguel Tejada is going to lose out to Derek Jeter for the right to start the All-Star game? Mildly, but his OPS is actually slightly higher, and there is no doubt he deserves the honor. Maybe if the Orioles weren't so inept, they'd actually draw people to the games, and Miggy would get more votes from his home fans.

If you buy the argument that the New York fans are stuffing the ballot box, consider this. The Yankees and Red Sox consistently win games. That's why they draw fans. And as a reward for doing so well at the gate, I don't mind if they dominate the All-Star game starting lineups. It's not as if small market teams can't compete at the gate; in 2001, the top 6 drawing teams were Seattle, San Francisco, New York Yankees, Cleveland, Colorado, and Baltimore. Aside from the Yankees, I don't see too many big market teams up there.

That stat, the one that says 10 of the 16 All-Star starters play their ball in New York or Boston, is cyclical. By next year, more fans will be familiar with Joe Mauer and big-time players having bad seasons will be less hyped. And frankly, even if the fans voted justly, there would still be 8 or 9 Boston or New York players starting the game, and ignornant journalists would continue to complain of East Coast bias.

It's Been Awhile

Since I last posted, the Orioles have played poorly against Detroit, swept Kansas City, and lost 2 of 3 from the Red Sox. After their 5-1 win at Washington tonight, they are 20-22 on the season. At least they have shown that they can defeat bad teams easily (with the exception of the Seattle series), which should help the club remain somewhat respectable even as they limp to yet another fourth place finish.

In the Boston series, predictably, Rodrigo Lopez and Bruce Chen got hit hard, and the Birds lost both games. Lopez now has a 7.46 ERA and has allowed no fewer than 4 earned runs in every one of his 9 starts. Bruce Chen has a 8.23 ERA and hasn't shown any signs of curing his home run problem. With Daniel Cabrera on the Disabled List, it is now time to make some wholesale changes to the rotation. You can't go with a 4 man rotation when half of those involved have ERA's above 7. There are several good options in case the Birds do decide to alter the rotation. Hayden Penn, a call-up last season, has a 1.48 ERA in 5 starts for Triple A Ottawa. There is also the option of moving Kurt Birkins to the starting rotation. He started in Ottawa and posted a 3.20 ERA. However, having his left arm in the bullpen is a huge asset. With those options, it is hard to imagine that Adam Loewen would be called up from Double A Bowie, but in recent years the Orioles have done strange things with call-ups. Lopez and Chen are two of the Orioles most veteran consistent pitchers, but eventually, you have to make a change. We're already though 1/4 of the season. If it were up to me, I'd call up Hayden Penn, and I'd also give John Halama a chance. He's pitched better than his stats indicate.

In other news, I think the most painful team to like in baseball is the Kansas City Royals. This isn't just because of last weekend's series, in which they blow a 7-4 lead in the 9th inning, but in general, they're in even worse shape than Tampa Bay. At least the Devil Rays have a good farm system and good leadership. Allard Baird has destroyed the Royals by trading Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, and Carlos Beltran for absolutely nothing, and David Glass has proven himself to be one of the cheapest owners in modern memory. He gets millions of dollars from the Yankees every year and does absolutely nothing with it. I think the final straw was in 2003, when everything went right for the Royals yet they only finished 83-79. When your ceiling is 83 wins, it certainly doesn't bode well for your future.

Perhaps that explains the case of Chad Carroll. As Rick Maese wrote in the Baltimore Sun last Sunday, Carroll finally gave up his loyalty to the Royals this year, and sold it, along with his memorabilia, on Ebay for $278.47. Carroll said, "It's their ownership and they're never going away. They all seem to forget that fans own baseball, and every year fans have less and less of a voice. It's not right. The game is being taken away from the fans." The winner, which turned out to be his friends, gets to choose his new team. Now, don't laugh, but one of the major contenders his friends are thinking of is the Orioles.

I'm watching Spurs-Mavs right now, and you've got to give the Spurs credit for hanging around. If they can keep it within 10 to the 4th quarter, I think they're going to take it. They've been overplayed to this point, however.

Song of the Day: "Ohio", by Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young. Written by Neil Young, it's an amazing song about the Kent State shootings that occured in 1970. There are only two paragraphs of lyrics, but the courage Young had to call out Dick Nixon the way he did makes it worth every single line.

Curse of the Moose

Ever since Mike Mussina defected the Free State for the Big Apple following the 2000 season, the Orioles have not had a single starter turn in back to back seasons with an ERA under 4. The only starter to have an ERA under 4.00 last year was Bruce Chen, at 3.83. Well, this season, Chen has an ERA of 8.40 and has allowed 11 home runs in 30 innings pitched. For the record, the only Oriole starters to even have one season under 4.00 since Moose's departure are Rodrigo Lopez (2002, 2004) and Sidney Ponson, in his contract year (2003).

The Orioles lost again at Boston tonight, thanks to a David Ortiz double in the bottom of the 6th. If there is good news to take out of the loss, it's that John Halama pitched two scoreless innings. With no other lefty veterans on the roster, Halama has the potential to fulfil a crucial role for the Orioles. Also, Nick Markakis got two hits, including a triple, which will hopefully boost his confidence. He's struggled of late, but he can bounce back.

The Orioles, 14-17, have Erik Bedard going against Tim Wakefield tomorrow, and then Kris Benson going in the Sunday matinee. The two have been the most reliable starters this year, so the Birds have a respectable chance of getting out of Beantown with a series win. At the very least, the Orioles should win on Sunday, when Benson goes up against youngster Lenny DiNardo. DiNardo has three starts on the season, which ranged from good to mediocre to Bruce Chen. However, nothing comes easy against Boston, considering the power of their lineup.

It's been a rough stretch for the Birds, and it won't get any easier in the next 11 games, 8 of which are against winning teams (Boston and Detroit). If they can head into the Nationals series at .500, it will be a major success.